The CAP forecast is valid for the state of California. However, we can estimate regional precipitation forecasts by applying the statewide forecast (90-110% of normal) to the regional precipitation averages. For Region 2 (Sacramento, Feather, and American), 90-110% of normal equates to 40.98 to 50.09”.  After a very wet February, Region 2 received 6.86” in March for a WY accumulation of 41.60”, representing 91.4% of WY normal – and within the CAP forecast range.

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If we consider the precipitation distribution for the state, we find that 93% of stations in Region 2 fall on the “wet” side of the distribution.  The average % increase for February across all 29 reporting stations was 14.22% (down from an exceptional 27.58% last month).  For context, the median increase for the 110 reporting stations across the state was 14.97%.  The standout station in this region was Colfax, gaining 21.82% for the month.

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How many stations are within CAP’s verification range of 90-110%? Just over half of the stations (16 of 29) are within the verification range with data through March.