The CAP forecast is valid for the state of California. However, we can estimate regional precipitation forecasts by applying the statewide forecast (90-110% of normal) to the regional precipitation averages. For Region 2 (Sacramento, Feather, and American), 90-110% of normal equates to 40.76 to 49.82”.  Region 2 received 2.47” in April for a WY accumulation of 44.07”, representing 97.3% of WY normal – and within the CAP forecast range.

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If we consider the precipitation distribution for the state, we find that 96% of stations in Region 2 fall on the “wet” side of the distribution. The average % increase for February across all 29 reporting stations was 4.48% (down roughly 10% from last month). For context, the median increase for the 110 reporting stations across the state was 3.30%. The standout station in this region—and in the entire state—was Canyon Dam, gaining 11.90% for the month.

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How many Region 2 stations are within CAP’s verification range of 90-110%? Of the 27 stations, 21 (78%) are within the verification range with data through April.