CAP model output indicates that Region 2 will receive 105-125% of normal precipitation. For Region 2, 105-125% of normal equates to 55.83-66.46”.

‍

The regional gauge below shows the CAP forecast lower and upper bounds (55.83-66.46”), the “normal” for Region 2, and the observed precipitation through the end of January. After a climactic end to 2025, precipitation slowed in January. Region 2 recorded a more modest 6.7 inches for the month, bringing the region to 62.07% of its total water year accumulation—a gain of roughly 13 percentage points during January.

‍

Region 2 has typically received 27.29 inches by this point in the water year; with 33.0 inches currently recorded, the region is still above average.

‍

The NWS data feed we typically use for verification has been permanently discontinued due to federal funding issues so we have made some adjustments to our verification framework.  Estimates for water year averages are calculated using station data from the regional precipitation indices produced by the California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC): the 8 stations comprising the Northern Sierra represent our CAP Region 2, the 5 stations of the San Joaquin Basin represent our CAP Region 4, and the 6 stations of the Tulare Basin represent our CAP Region 6.