CAP model output indicates that Region 6 will receive 87.5-107.5% of normal precipitation. For Region 6, 87.5-107.5% of normal equates to 24.77-30.43”.

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The regional gauge below shows the CAP forecast lower and upper bounds (24.77-30.43”), the “normal” for Region 6, and the observed precipitation through the end of December.  After a climactic end to 2025, precipitation slowed in January. This region recorded a more modest 3.6 inches for the month, bringing it to 52% of its total water year accumulation—a gain of roughly 12 percentage points during January.
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Region 6 has typically received 13.91 inches by this point of the water year; with 14.8 inches currently recorded, the region is still above average.

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The NWS data feed we typically use for verification has been permanently discontinued due to federal funding issues so we have made some adjustments to our verification framework.  Estimates for water year averages are calculated using station data from the regional precipitation indices produced by the California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC): the 8 stations comprising the Northern Sierra represent our CAP Region 2, the 5 stations of the San Joaquin Basin represent our CAP Region 4, and the 6 stations of the Tulare Basin represent our CAP Region 6.