Core Supply Dashboard
WY 2025-26 Precipitation Forecast: Above Normal, Decreasing to the South
Following an “average” year in 2024-25, it looks like much of California will have a chance of experiencing above average precipitation in water year 2025-26, with a modest drying gradient to the south. Refer to the Insights Section for more details (left sidebar).
The dashboard below shows the Core Supply status (Regions 2, 4, and 6, shaded orange) with observed data through January 31, 2026.
For details by region, see the Regional section below.
Core Supply:
CAP Forecast WY 2025-26
Core Supply: Year-over-Year Comparison
Highlights
- January’s accumulation was roughly half of December’s, with the Core Supply region gaining 5.41 inches of precipitation, increasing water year progress by roughly 13 percentage points. This is just below the historical average for January (7.59 inches).
- With a total water year accumulation of 24.17 inches, the Core Supply sits at 57.78% of water-year average.
- With more modest precipitation this month, the current water year accumulation trace is bending toward the traces of analog water years 2018–19 and 2024–25. See the Insights Section for accompanying graphic and a comprehensive discussion of January and beyond.
- Please note, observed reservoir inflows through January 31, 2026, are available in the CRAFT section of the portal.
Latest Insight
January Slows, but the Water Year Remains on Track
After a blockbuster end to 2025, January appears more subdued by comparison. But is this reason for concern?
As shown in the histogram below, January precipitation for the combined 8/6/5 station indices exhibits substantial historical variability, with totals ranging from near zero to more than 20 inches from 1975-present. While extreme January outcomes tend to draw attention, most years cluster near the long-term average of 7.09 inches, highlighted by the dotted orange line that runs through the densest portion of the distribution. January 2026 totaled 5.41 inches, placing it modestly below the long-term mean but well within the historical mid-range and far from the dry tail of the distribution. This level of accumulation reflects a climatologically typical January. Historically, drier-than-average Januaries have resulted in both wet and dry water years. We know January alone cannot determine what the full water year will bring, but it never hurts to be reminded.
CAP: Regional Reports
Sacramento, Yuba, Feather & American
Russian, Napa, & San Francisco Bay
San Joaquin & Tulare
Kern & Kings
CRAFT | Reservoir Inflow Forecast
Water Year 2025-26 With Observed Data through 1/31/2026
Trinity Lake
Lake Shasta
Lake Oroville
New Bullards Bar Reservoir
Englebright Reservoir
Folsom Lake
Pardee Reservoir
New Hogan Reservoir
New Melones Reservoir
Hetch Hetchy Reservoir
New Don Pedro Reservoir
Exchequer Reservoir
Millerton Lake
Pine Flat Reservoir
Lake Kaweah
Lake Success
Lake Isabella
