Attention

Beginning with this issue, we are placing greater emphasis on reservoir inflow conditions across Regions 2, 4, and 6. While precipitation remains a key driver, it is inflow that ultimately determines operational decisions.
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Within each regional section (scroll down or use the left navigation to “CAP Report” > “Region X”), you will now find:

  • Reservoir information including:

    • Current reservoir storage status for key reservoirs

    • Key Reservoir levels for WY 2025-26 alongside analog years 2018-19 and 2024-25

  • Precipitation updates and regional gauges

The discussion that follows pertains to the California Annual Precipitation (CAP) forecast. For information on our inflow product, the California Reservoir Annual Forecast Tool (CRAFT), navigate to “CRAFT Forecasts” on the left sidebar where Water Year inflow numbers have been updated through February 28, 2026.

Core Supply Dashboard

WY 2025–26 Precipitation Forecast: Near Normal Overall, Slightly Wetter in the North

Following an “average” year in 2024–25, precipitation for water year 2025–26 is projected to be near normal across California. Forecast guidance suggests a modest north–south gradient, with conditions trending slightly above average in the northern portion of the Core Supply region and near to slightly-below average in the south. 

See the Regional Sections for a more detailed breakdown by region.

The dashboard below shows the Core Supply status (Regions 2, 4, and 6, shaded orange) with observed data through March 9, 2026.

Core Supply:
CAP Forecast WY 2025-26

Highlights

  1. Beginning this month, precipitation observations have been updated to incorporate additional valley-floor stations, improving spatial representation across the watershed and resulting in slight differences from previously reported values for the Core Supply and individual regions.
  2. Late February storms resulted in a monthly accumulation of 5.77 inches through March 9 for the Core Supply region, increasing water year progress by just over 21 percentage points.  
  3. With a total water year accumulation of 24.16 inches, the Core Supply sits at 89.13% of water-year average, roughly 6 percentage points shy of the CAP forecast range.
  4. The current water year accumulation trace continues to track closely with analog water years 2018–19 and 2024–25. See the Insights Section for accompanying graphics and a comprehensive discussion of precipitation through February and into March.
  5. Please note, observed reservoir inflows through February 28, 2026, are available in the CRAFT section of the portal.
View Insights

Latest Insight

March 2026

Monthly Update: Insights through March 9

Overall precipitation totals across the Core Supply region remain on track to verify within the forecast range. However, the north–south gradient observed so far this water year differs from the pattern anticipated in the November outlook.

Read More

CAP: Regional Reports

Region 2

Sacramento, Yuba, Feather & American

View Region Details
Region 3

Russian, Napa, & San Francisco Bay

View Region Details
Region 4

San Joaquin & Tulare

View Region Details
Region 6

Kern & Kings

View Region Details

CRAFT | Reservoir Inflow Forecast

Water Year 2025-26 With Observed Data through 2/28/2026

MAF

Trinity Lake

Lake Shasta

Lake Oroville

New Bullards Bar Reservoir

Englebright Reservoir

Folsom Lake

Pardee Reservoir

New Hogan Reservoir

New Melones Reservoir

Hetch Hetchy Reservoir

New Don Pedro Reservoir

Exchequer Reservoir

Millerton Lake

Pine Flat Reservoir

Lake Kaweah

Lake Success

Lake Isabella

MAF