The CAP forecast is valid for the state of California. However, we can estimate regional precipitation forecasts by applying the statewide forecast (90-110% of normal) to the regional precipitation averages. For Region 4 (San Joaquin and Tulare) 90-110% of normal equates to 22.41 to 27.39”. This region gained just over ½ inch in the month of April to reach a WY total of 17.77”, representing 71.4% of WY normal.

If we consider the state’s precipitation distribution, 86% of stations in Region 4 are on the “dry” side of the distribution, an increase from last month. The 22 reporting stations in Region 4 saw an average 4.56% increase in precipitation during April, slightly above the median (3.30%) for all 110 reporting stations. Once again, this pattern underscores just how dry this region has been, that even with monthly precipitation above the median, an increasing number of stations are on the dry side of the distribution for the year. Friant Government Camp stood out again in April, recording a 7.84% increase.