CAP model output indicates that Region 3 will receive 100-120% of normal precipitation. For Region 3, 100-120% of normal equates to 28.24-33.89”.

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The regional gauge below shows the CAP forecast lower and upper bounds (28.24-33.89”), the “normal” for Region 3, and the observed precipitation through the end of November. With another boost from the November 13-17 precipitation event, this region recorded 3.83 inches of accumulation in November and sits at 19.1% of total water year precipitation, marking an increase of approximately 13 percentage points in a single month.

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The NWS data feed we typically use for verification has been permanently discontinued due to federal funding issues so we have made some adjustments to our verification framework. Estimates for water year averages for Region 3 are calculated using a sub-set of stations from the California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC).