CAP model output indicates that Region 3 will receive 100-120% of normal precipitation. For Region 3, 100-120% of normal equates to 28.24-33.89”.

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The regional gauge below shows the CAP forecast lower and upper bounds (28.24-33.89”), the “normal” for Region 3, and the observed precipitation through the end of January.  After a climactic end to 2025, precipitation slowed in January. Region 3 recorded a more modest 4.08 inches for the month, bringing the region to 55.73% of its total water year accumulation—a gain of roughly 14 percentage points during January.

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The NWS data feed we typically use for verification has been permanently discontinued due to federal funding issues so we have made some adjustments to our verification framework.  Estimates for water year averages for Region 3 are calculated using a sub-set of stations from the California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC).