The CAP forecast is valid for the state of California. However, we can estimate regional precipitation forecasts by applying the statewide forecast (90-110% of normal) to the regional precipitation averages. For Region 6 (Kern and Kings) 90-110% of normal equates to 20.46-25.01”.  

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Please note: This month's calculations are based on only five stations, so actual values may differ from those reported. Within the Insights Section, we examine the Tulare 6-station index.  This collection of stations, within CAP Region 6, provides an additional perspective on Region 6 precipitation given the incomplete NWS data. The Tulare Basin 6-station index indicates precipitation totals in this region may be higher than indicated by NWS data.  As of February 28, the Tulare Basin had accumulated approximately 14.5 inches of precipitation, representing 51.2% of the water year total for this basin.

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With only 5 NWS stations reporting, Region 6 (KTKK) received 4.71" in February to finish at 10.83", representing 47.6% of total water year normal. If we consider the precipitation distribution for the state, we find that all reporting stations in Region 6 fall on the “dry” side of the distribution. The average % increase for February across the 5 reporting stations was 19.02%; for context, the median increase for the 114 reporting stations across the state was 23.29%. Eagle Creek had the highest increase in precipitation percentage for the region, gaining 24.94 percentage points.