The CAP forecast is valid for the state of California. However, we can estimate regional precipitation forecasts by applying the statewide forecast (90-110% of normal) to the regional precipitation averages. For Region 6 (Kern and Kings) 90-110% of normal equates to 20.46-25.01”.

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Please note: this month, only five stations reported in KTKK, compared to eleven stations last month. Upon inquiry, the CNRFC indicated that the absence of personnel responsible for reporting the additional stations contributed to this discrepancy. As a result, the actual values may differ from the reported data.

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This region has received a mere 0.71” during the month of January to finish at 6.12” (26.9% of WY normal).  If we consider the precipitation distribution for the state, we find that 80% of reporting stations in Region 6 fall on the “dry” side of the distribution.  The average % increase for January across the 5 reporting stations was 3.08%; for context, the median for the 114 reporting stations across the state was 2.62%.  Hossack had the highest increase in precipitation percentage for the region, gaining 4.5 percentage points.  

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A Note about Core Water: 

We are always exploring new ways to analyze the data. To better understand precipitation patterns, we examined accumulation percentages across all stations and divided them into quartiles—four equal groups that rank stations from driest (Q1) to wettest (Q4). Comparing “Core Water” (Regions 2/4/6) and “Non-Core Water” stations, we see a clear contrast: Core Water stations tend to be wetter, with most falling in Q3 or Q4 and only 3 of 61 in Q1. In contrast, nearly half of Non-Core Water stations are in Q1, highlighting a much drier distribution.