The CAP forecast is valid for the state of California. However, we can estimate regional precipitation forecasts by applying the statewide forecast (90-110% of normal) to the regional precipitation averages. For Region 6 (Kern and Kings) 90-110% of normal equates to 24.98” to 30.53”.  This region has received 3.44” during the month of November to finish at 3.45” (12.4% of WY normal).

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If we consider the precipitation distribution for the state, we find that 73% of stations in Region 6 fall on the “dry” side of the distribution.  The first atmospheric river had such significant impacts on Regions 1, 2, and 3 that Region 6 is dry in a relative sense, even with a jump of over 10 percentage points in WY accumulation.  For the 11 stations reporting in Region 6 the average WY accumulation is 13.5%.  Lake Success Dam has the highest accumulation percentage for the region, receiving 2.07” of precipitation in November and coming in at 19% of WY average.