The CAP forecast is valid for the state of California. However, we can estimate regional precipitation forecasts by applying the statewide forecast (90-110% of normal) to the regional precipitation averages. For Region 4 (San Joaquin and Tulare) 90-110% of normal equates to 22.88” to 27.96”.  This region gained ~5” in the month of March to reach a WY total of 17.13”, representing 67.4% of WY normal.

If we consider the state’s precipitation distribution, 74% of stations in Region 4 are on the “dry” side of the distribution. However, the 23 reporting stations in Region 4 saw an average 21.6% increase in precipitation during March, while the median increase across all 110 reporting stations was 14.97%.  This underscores how dry this region has been, that even with monthly precipitation that far exceeded the median, most stations are still on the dry side of the distribution for the year.  Friant Government Camp stood out in March, recording a notable 30.69% increase.