The CAP forecast is valid for the state of California. However, we can estimate regional precipitation forecasts by applying the statewide forecast (90-110% of normal) to the regional precipitation averages. For Region 4 (San Joaquin and Tulare) 90-110% of normal equates to 21.68” to 26.50”.  This region saw a jump of 2.77” in the month of December- just 1/10 of an inch shy of November’s accumulation- to reach a WY total of 5.72”.  This represents an increase of 11.5% for the month. 

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If we consider the precipitation distribution for the state, we find that 73% of stations in Region 4 fall on the “dry” side of the distribution; this is down from 86% last month.  The precipitation event in late December did provide some precipitation in this region, explaining the slight shift in the distribution.  For the 30 stations reporting in Region 4, the average WY accumulation is 23.8%.  Fiddletown - Dexter Ranch, just east of Sacramento, received 7.5” of precipitation in December.  This represented a 20% increase, bringing the station to 29% of its WY normal.