The CAP forecast is valid for the state of California. However, we can estimate regional precipitation forecasts by applying the statewide forecast (90-110% of normal) to the regional precipitation averages. For Region 4 (San Joaquin and Tulare) 90-110% of normal equates to 23.72” to 29.00”.  This region gained over 6” in the month of February to reach a WY total of 12.59”.  This represents an increase 21.3%.

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If we consider the state’s precipitation distribution, we see a slight drying trend in Region 4 compared to last month, with 80% of stations now on the “dry” side of the distribution. However, given the substantial totals recorded in this region, this trend is better described as “slightly less wet compared to other stations” as February brought productive precipitation across much of the state. 

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On average, the 25 reporting stations in Region 4 saw a 19.56% increase in precipitation during January, while the median increase across all 114 reporting stations was 23.29%. North Fork stood out in February, recording a notable 28.27% increase.