The CAP forecast is valid for the state of California. However, we can estimate regional precipitation forecasts by applying the statewide forecast (90-110% of normal) to the regional precipitation averages.

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As a reminder, because of the NWS data gaps, we are now utilizing the San Joaquin 5-station index data for observed precipitation totals and to compute Region 4 averages. 

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For Region 4 (San Joaquin and Tulare) 90-110% of normal equates to 35.95-43.93”. This region gained 2.08” from May-September 30 for a WY total of 32.6”, representing 82% of WY normal- and 8 percentage points shy of the CAP forecast range.