The CAP forecast is valid for the state of California. However, we can estimate regional precipitation forecasts by applying the statewide forecast (90-110% of normal) to the regional precipitation averages. For Region 4 (San Joaquin and Tulare) 90-110% of normal equates to 21.68” to 26.50”.  This region saw a jump of 2.87” in the month of November to reach a WY total of 2.95”.  This represents an increase of over 10 percentage points (0.3% at the end of October to 12.3% of WY normal through November).

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If we consider the precipitation distribution for the state, we find that 86% of stations in Region 4 fall on the “dry” side of the distribution.  The first atmospheric river had such significant impacts on Regions 1, 2, and 3 that Region 4 is dry in a relative sense, even with a jump of over 10 percentage points in WY accumulation.  For the 30 stations reporting in Region 4, the average WY accumulation is 13.16%.  Visalia has the highest accumulation percentage for the region, receiving 3.00” of precipitation in November and coming in at 27% of WY average.