Core Supply Dashboard
WY 2025-26 Precipitation Forecast: Above Normal, Decreasing to the South
Following an “average” year in 2024-25, it looks like much of California will have a chance of experiencing above average precipitation in water year 2025-26, with a modest drying gradient to the south. Refer to the Insights Section for more details (left sidebar).
The dashboard below shows the Core Supply status (Regions 2,4, and 6, shaded blue) with observed data through November 29, 2025.
For details by region, see the Regional section below.
Core Supply:
CAP Forecast WY 2025-26
Core Supply: Year-over-Year Comparison
Highlights
- After a wetter-than-average October, November’s accumulation totals were even more impressive. An atmospheric river event from November 13-17 resulted in significant gains: The Core Supply region gained roughly 4 inches of precipitation from the single event and saw a jump of 10 percentage points.
- The Core Supply typically receives about 4 inches in November, but this month saw 6.33 inches—well above average—and bringing the water year total to 21.60% of normal.
- This wet start to the water year is well-aligned with analog water years 2018-19 and 2024-25. See the Insights Section for more discussion about the where/when/how of this year’s precipitation.
Latest Insight
And We’re Off!
The 2025–26 water year is off to a running start. From mid-October through November, storms have already drenched much of the state, pushing nearly every region well above normal for this point in the season. Southern California has seen some of its wettest November conditions on record, while the Core Supply region is keeping pace with last year’s strong early-season totals.
CAP: Regional Reports
Sacramento, Yuba, Feather & American
Russian, Napa, & San Francisco Bay
San Joaquin & Tulare
Kern & Kings
CRAFT | Reservoir Inflow Forecast
Water Year 2025-26 With Observed Data through 9/30/2025
Trinity Lake
Lake Shasta
Lake Oroville
New Bullards Bar Reservoir
Englebright Reservoir
Indian Valley Reservoir
Folsom Lake
Pardee Reservoir
New Hogan Reservoir
New Melones Reservoir
Hetch Hetchy Reservoir
New Don Pedro Reservoir
Exchequer Reservoir
Millerton Lake
Pine Flat Reservoir
Lake Kaweah
Lake Success
Lake Isabella
